The pro's toolbox
In the context of health crisis, we are offering a toolbox of key elements to watch out for in order to better understand the energy markets, as well as some background information.
All the links below lead to free solutions and information.
6 April 2020
Power consumption
Containment has brought about a significant fall in electricity consumption in Europe, in orders of magnitude of 10 to 20% depending on the country. Even if the drop in industrial demand seems to have bottomed out, residential consumption should fall further with the return of milder temperatures.
Keeping a close eye on consumption trends will be crucial in measuring the impact of de-containment on industrial activity. Forecasts are tricky because the situation is unprecedented; nimble reactivity will be required!
Medium and long-term market price
As an immediate effect of the fall in consumption, short-term market prices have collapsed, reaching levels of around €20/MWh on weekdays and €10/MWh for public holidays and weekends. On the long-term markets (2021 and beyond) the drop is mainly due to the fall in fuel prices (gas and CO2). It will be essential to monitor the evolution of the latter, which could rise sharply once the crisis is over.
Availability of the french nuclear fleet
As a direct effect of containment, the maintenance schedule for nuclear power plants has been significantly disrupted: the majority of interventions have been cancelled, and EDF announced it is concentrating on 5 plants (for a total of 4,500MW) the availability of which it wants to ensure for the coming autumn and winter seasons. This will no doubt have a strong downward impact on nuclear production at the end of 2020 and beyond, as well as delay the decision on extending the life of the plants beyond 40 years. Raw data on maintenance schedules are available via the button below and we would be happy to share our probabilistic scenarios with you.
Renewable fleet and regulatory developments
Beyond containment, which is without a doubt delaying the work in progress, it will be important to evaluate the economic consequences of the crisis on the conditions of access to funding for renewable energies. We have at our disposal tools that simulate long-term electricity prices based on the evolution of existing wind and solar capabilities.
Political decisions around the CO2 market will have a major impact on price; as a matter of fact, it is the rise in CO2 emissions in recent months that is largely responsible for the gradual replacement of coal-fired power plants by gas-fired plants. It is very likely that the European Union will put in place support mechanisms aiming at avoiding too much of a return to highly polluting energy sources.
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